Posted on June 2, 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) is riding a wave of excitement and uncertainty as it navigates a pivotal moment in June 2025. After achieving its highest-ever monthly close in May at approximately $105,700, Bitcoin is now grappling with the possibility of retesting the critical $100,000 level, according to Cointelegraph. This contrast between a bullish milestone and looming volatility has traders and investors on edge. Let’s unpack the key insights driving Bitcoin’s price action and what to watch for in the weeks ahead.
May’s Record Close: A Bullish Milestone
Bitcoin’s May 2025 performance was nothing short of historic, with an 11% gain culminating in a monthly close above $105,700, surpassing December 2024’s high of $104,450. This achievement, highlighted by Cointelegraph, reinforces Bitcoin’s upward trajectory and its growing appeal as a store of value. The strong close reflects robust institutional interest, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amassing $36.2 billion in inflows since their inception, per CoinGlass data. Posts on X from analysts like
@MosaicAsset underscore Bitcoin’s resilience, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar (DXY below 99) and macroeconomic uncertainties like trade tariffs.
However, the bullish narrative isn’t without cracks. A bearish divergence on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals potential bull exhaustion, as noted by trader Jelle on X. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin’s momentum may be waning, setting the stage for a possible pullback.
The $100,000 Retest: A Critical Juncture
Traders are closely monitoring the $100,000 psychological level, which could act as either a springboard for further gains or a trigger for deeper corrections. Analyst CrypNuevo points to strong buy-side liquidity above $100,000, with order book data indicating support at $100,000–$102,000. A successful retest of this level could propel Bitcoin toward $113,000, especially if it breaks resistance at $106,000. However, a failure to hold $100,000 could see prices slide to $97,000 or lower, a scenario warned about by
@CryptoQuant on X.
On-chain metrics paint a mixed picture. CryptoQuant reports a decline in long-term holder (LTH) realized cap, suggesting reduced conviction among Bitcoin’s most steadfast investors. Whale activity has also slowed, with fewer large transactions compared to Q4 2024. Retail interest remains tepid, which could cap upside potential unless fresh catalysts—such as new ETF approvals or pro-crypto policy shifts—emerge.
Macro Factors Fueling Volatility
Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by macroeconomic developments. Weak U.S. labor market data, with unemployment rising to 4.3% in May, has raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. dollar’s decline and uncertainty around trade tariffs under President Trump’s administration further position Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established in March 2025, continues to signal government confidence in BTC, with posts on X speculating about potential reserve expansion.
However, risks remain. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 18, 2025, could introduce volatility if hawkish signals emerge. Additionally, $11.5 billion in short positions are at risk if Bitcoin reclaims its all-time high of $111,900, per CoinGlass, which could trigger a short squeeze and amplify price swings.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The coming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin’s trajectory. Key levels to watch include:
- Support: $100,000–$102,000, with a critical floor at $97,000.
- Resistance: $106,000, with a break above potentially targeting $113,000–$120,000.
- Catalysts: FOMC outcomes, ETF inflows, and whale accumulation could drive momentum. Conversely, a lack of retail engagement or negative regulatory news could weigh on prices.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. CryptoQuant’s 2025 forecast sees Bitcoin hitting $120,000 by Q3 if institutional adoption accelerates, while more conservative estimates peg $110,000 as a realistic target. The bearish RSI divergence and declining LTH metrics, however, suggest traders should brace for volatility.
Why It Matters
Bitcoin’s record monthly close underscores its growing legitimacy as a global asset, but the potential $100,000 retest highlights the market’s inherent unpredictability. For investors, this moment offers both opportunity and caution. A successful defense of $100,000 could ignite the next leg of the bull run, while a breakdown might signal a deeper correction. Staying informed on macroeconomic trends, on-chain data, and technical levels will be key to navigating this pivotal period.
What’s your prediction for Bitcoin’s next move? Will it hold $100,000, or are we in for a dip? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s keep the conversation going!
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks, and readers should conduct their own research before trading.
Sources:
- Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price Expectations Fluctuate as Historic Monthly Close Contrasts with $100K Retest Concerns
- CoinGlass: Bitcoin Order Book and ETF Data
- CryptoQuant: On-Chain Metrics and Price Forecasts
- X Posts: @Jelle, @CrypNuevo, @MosaicAsset
