If you’ve ever found yourself staring at charts at 2 AM, second-guessing that last trade, you already know that Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines. Some days bring euphoric pumps, while others serve up gut-wrenching dips that test every ounce of patience. Yet, beyond all that noise, one thing never lies: on-chain data.
Right now, insights from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. suggest that Bitcoin may still have room to run. On September 18, 2025, Adler explained in an X post that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are experiencing a “healthy profit reset.” In simpler terms, expensive coins that were once in the hands of short-term holders (STHs) are aging into the LTH group, which raises the LTH realized price while simultaneously lowering their overall risk profile (BitcoinEthereumNews, 2025).
With Bitcoin hovering around $95,000 following the ETF-driven rally, this data suggests something critical: the market’s structure is resilient, selling pressure is diffused, and bulls still have the upper hand. Let’s break down what that means, why it matters, and how it could shape the road ahead.
Cracking the Code: What Does “Long-Term Holder Risk Decline” Mean?
First, it helps to unpack the jargon. In CryptoQuant’s framework:
- Long-term holders (LTHs) are investors who keep their Bitcoin for 155 days or longer.
- Short-term holders (STHs) are traders who buy and sell within shorter windows.
- Realized price is the average cost basis of coins in circulation.
Adler’s analysis shows that, since March 2025, the realized price for LTHs has climbed faster than spot BTC. Why? Because many coins bought at higher prices (during the Q2 rally above $100K) are now maturing into long-term holdings. That shift dilutes unrealized profits, which in turn reduces the likelihood of mass panic-selling (CryptoQuant via AInvest, 2025).
To put it another way, Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Risk Index recently dipped to 23%, a three-year low. According to Adler, that suggests a far smaller chance of major pullbacks in the short term (BitcoinEthereumNews, 2025). In previous bull runs, LTHs sitting on outsized profits often sparked rapid sell-offs. Today, the profit reset acts as a safety valve, keeping the market steady.
The Maturation Magic: How STH Coins Are Leveling Up
Over just 16 days in September, 359,000 BTC (worth $33B) transitioned from short-term to long-term supply (Bitcoinist, 2025). This mirrors similar flows earlier in April that kicked off a strong rally.
This shift matters for two reasons:
- Reduced Sell Pressure: Short-term holders often sell quickly at the first sign of red candles. Once those coins mature into LTH supply, their owners are less likely to panic.
- Higher Cost Basis: Many of these newly matured coins were bought at premiums ($45K–$50K), meaning long-term holders now sit on higher entry prices, lowering the urge to dump at current levels.
Meanwhile, ETF inflows continue to absorb supply. Just last week, inflows topped $3 billion, with institutions like BlackRock’s iBIT fund adding 20,000 BTC (Crypto.news, 2025). This reinforces what Adler calls a “good market structure,” where fresh capital consistently soaks up coins from older holders.
LTHs in the Spotlight: Why They Matter More Than Ever
Long-term holders aren’t just another metric—they’re the backbone of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. As of September 2025, LTHs control over 72% of circulating supply, up from 70% just a month earlier (CryptoRank, 2025). Historically, this level of dominance has coincided with strong bull phases.
Here’s a snapshot of today’s key data:
| Metric | Current Level (Sept 2025) | Historical Bull Peak | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTH Supply % | 72% (up 2% MoM) | 75–80% | High LTH dominance = market stability |
| LTH Realized Price | ~$48K | $30K (2021 peak) | Rising realized price curbs aggressive profit-taking |
| STH-to-LTH Flow | +359K BTC (16 days) | +200K (April rally) | Signals strong accumulation |
| Risk Index | 23% (3-yr low) | 50%+ (pre-crash) | Suggests low near-term crash risk |
These figures demonstrate that the market is still healthy, not overheated. Compare that to 2018 or 2021, when unrealized LTH profits soared past 500%, creating irresistible sell pressure. Today, unrealized gains remain closer to 215%—strong but not unsustainable (BitcoinEthereumNews, 2025).
Why Healthy Market Structure Means Higher Highs
Good market structure is about balance. When LTHs reset profits while new capital flows in, the result is steady growth instead of violent crashes. For example:
- Volatility is currently at 35% (half of 2021 levels).
- Futures basis has flipped bullish, historically signaling a 70% chance of gradual price rises (CryptoQuant via BitcoinEthereumNews, 2025).
- Exchange inflows remain near yearly lows, showing limited selling appetite (Cointelegraph, 2024).
This trifecta suggests that the rally still has legs. Adler even projects that Bitcoin won’t reach its “cycle top” until late 2025, when spot prices hit 11x the LTH realized price—a level not yet in sight.
Risks on the Horizon
Of course, no market is risk-free. Key factors to monitor include:
- Macroeconomic shifts: Federal Reserve policy changes or weaker job data could briefly stall momentum.
- Cycle fatigue: Adler warns that appetite may cool by late 2025, with only “two more rebounds” left in this bull cycle (MEXC News, 2025).
- Overextension: If Bitcoin runs too quickly toward the 11x realized threshold, that could mark the beginning of a topping pattern.
Still, with the Risk Index at multi-year lows and ETFs fueling demand, odds favor continued strength.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters for You
What Adler highlights isn’t just another bullish narrative—it’s data-backed evidence that Bitcoin’s base is stronger than many realize. The declining LTH risk, steady ETF inflows, and resilient supply dynamics suggest that $120,000 BTC by year-end isn’t just a dream—it’s a realistic outcome if conditions hold.
For long-term investors, the lesson is clear: patience pays. For short-term traders, the takeaway is to “buy dips, not tops,” since the broader structure remains constructive.
Ultimately, this phase of the bull run feels less like fireworks and more like scaffolding—quiet, steady building before the next leg higher. And in crypto, that kind of boring is exactly what you want.
Sources:
- BitcoinEthereumNews: “Bitcoin Long-Term Holders’ Realized Prices Surpass Spot, Fueling Healthy Bullish Divergence” (2025)
- BitcoinEthereumNews: “Bitcoin Risk Index Falls to 23% — Low Pullback Risk as Markets Eye Powell Speech” (2025)
- BitcoinEthereumNews: “CryptoQuant Analyst Axel Adler Jr: BTC Futures Basis Turns Bullish — 70% Chance of Gradual Rise, New ATH Possible” (2025)
- Bitcoinist: “Bullish Bitcoin: 359,000 BTC Turns Long-Term As Market Swallows New Supply” (2025)
- AInvest: “Bitcoin’s Maturity Signal: A Strategic Sell-Off, Not Panic, Drives the Bull Run” (2025)
- CryptoRank: “Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulate as Short-Term Traders Capitulate” (2025)
- Crypto.news: “CryptoQuant Analyst Identifies Sign of the Next Altcoin Wave” (2025)
- MEXC News: “Analysis: Two More Rebounds in Bitcoin’s Late-Cycle Bull Market” (2025)
- Cointelegraph: “Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple Nears Yearly Low, Signs of Upward Trend” (2024)
